On the eve of the Special election to fill the open Senate seat I thought I would take a minute to discuss what has happened over the last few months. The rise of Scott Brown and the anemic response to it by the Coakley campaign is nothing short of amazing. The simple fact that he has risen over 30 points in the polls over the last few months is one of the most amazing come from behind performances this side of Frank Reich.
So what happened? Simply put, a perfect storm occurred combining inept campaign management on one side, grass-roots campaigning on the other, and a national backlash against the primary domestic agenda of the sitting president resulting in a historic rise of a State Senator. Scott Brown is poised to snatch victory from the hands of defeat and ironically in doing so may give the Democrats exactly what they need. Why, you ask? Simply put, the national mood and political temperament have become toxic to the Democrat party. They rode a wave into power that began during the mid-term elections of 2006 and culminated in the 2008 elections. The results were historic majorities in the house of representatives and the senate that were so large that Democrats did not even need to (and in most cases have not) involve bipartisan support with Republicans in developing their agendas. However, while Americans have been waiting for a recovery on the economy and jobless numbers still continue to rise the Democrat majority has focused on climate control (cap-and-trade) and health care “reform”. Health care reform that would add 30 million more people to the rolls all while trying to convince an already skeptical populace that by doing so it will reduce the deficit.
The results of all this has been a massive turnaround in public sentiment that has resulted in anti Democrat fervor not seen since the months following 9/11. In North Dakota (Byron Dorgan) and Connecticut (Chris Dodd) Democrat incumbents have announced retirement plans rather than face reelection amid horrible poll numbers. Others, in Arkansas (Lincoln), Colorado (Bennett), Nevada (Reid), and Pennsylvania (Specter) currently behind in polls against their Republican opponents. Worse yet, the races to replace both Obama and Biden look favorably on the republicans as well as Beau Biden the Vice Presidents son and state Attorney General is behind Republican Congressman Mike Castle in the polls and Republican Mark Kirk is running very well in Illinois to replace Obama.
The reasons for these numbers are simple. Majorities are opposing the health care reform package and the presidents domestic agenda. The polls showing Republicans ahead in so many races are generally fueled by this opposition and each states belief that their senate race will be the key one to break the Democrats 60 seat majority in the senate. The massive majority allows them to pass any legislation they choose without threat of a filibuster. Should Brown win, He would take away the magic 60th Senate Democrat vote. The Republicans will be able to block the Democrat agenda and the national urgency to break the Democrats stronghold on the senate will subside some. The fervor to block the healthcare bill will subside some as will some of the anti Democrat fervor going on around the country.
Brown and his Campaign team have run a flawless campaign, as any Republican has to in order to win in Massachusetts. But, just as important the Coakley campaign has been totally rudderless and incompetent. They have allowed her to seem aloof, entitled, disconnected, and arrogant. From her refusing to debate Brown one on one, to her December “vacation”, and mistaking the leanings of a certain Red Sox pitching hero, the tagline of her campaign truly has become “let them eat cake”. Proving herself totally politically tone-deaf she and her campaign managers have bungled and stumbled their way through the last 3 weeks alienating independent voters and eventually having to ask the president to come in to rally the democrat base in hopes of a heavy turnout to offset their inept maneuvering. In the end, I doubt it helps and Scott Brown wins by a comfortable margin.
Attorney Ronald A. Sellon